I will say the AT&T National.
I think you are right. I don't think he will win the PGA however because Tiger and Pete Dye designs=bad fits. If he wins a major this year, it will probably be the British Open. He was briefly in contention there in 2001 and he may not have to use driver.
May 31 - June 03 the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide InsuranceMuirfield Village GC, Dublin, Ohio Purse: $6,200,000 GOLFCBS
As I stated earlier - He will win NO majors this year and 1-2 more tournaments - The next one he wins is Jacks.