I don't think the winning score matters, I think it matters how Adam Scott plays tomorrow. If he plays well and shoots -2 or -3, it will take a 63 or 64 just from the guys in second and a 62 or 63 from Tiger to equal that score. If he shoots around par, someone from the final two groups can equal his score or beat his score, but they are going to have to go out there and shoot a very low score like a 64, 65 or 66. If he regresses and totally loses it shooting a few over par, it brings everyone under par in the tournament into the conversation. I don't think the wind is going to be deciding factor of who wins, I think its going to be how Adam Scott plays tomorrow. He has a four shot lead on his nearest competitors and a five shot lead on Tiger. The wind could definitely be a factor and cause him to play poorly, but how he plays is going to decide who wins. If he shoots a few under par like today, its going to take an absolutely special round just to equal his score. If he doesn't play so well, it brings a lot of people into play tomorrow to win.
Either way, Tiger is going to have to shoot a round in the 60's to even have a chance tomorrow regardless of how Scott plays. At Olympic, the course was so hard that the winner was going to always be the guy that shoots a score in the 60's in the last few groups, thats exactly how it played. Simpson shot a 68 and won from four back. Maybe the wind will make the course play like that tomorrow, but Tiger has to play well tomorrow, if he doesn't he has no chance to win. He has to be the best player on the golf course to win tomorrow.