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Selling Decisions

To Sell or to Hold: That is the Question

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#112 of 136

     Posted 10/5/04 1:29 PM   
NancyC, Admin
 
From  NancyC, Admin  Posts 10143  Last Jun-9
To  NancyC, Admin      [Msg # 27826.112 Message 27826.112 replying to 27826.107 27826.107 ]    
This will be the final formal post for this workshop.  I have attached the worksheet that I told you about.  To use it, look at the first item in the left-hand column under A. Consider Selling, which is If you need cash.  If that applies, put a check in the box to the left.  Then look in the cell to the right and check any items that apply.  Continue working down the worksheet.

Do not add up check marks!  The worksheet should be used to help you organize your thoughts and take the emotion out of your decision on whether to hold or sell a stock.

You can print out copies of the worksheet.

I have also attached a bibliography for those who may wish to read further, particularly about the psychological aspects of selling and holding decisions.

In summary, we have discussed some guidelines for when to sell and when to hold.  We also discussed common mistakes that investors make.  I have provided a worksheet to help guide you through the process.

Although this ends the formal presentation, everyone is welcome to continue discussing, commenting, or asking questions.

Nancy Crays
NAIC Forum - Long term investing made simple
Click on the Forum name to visit us


Attachments
Name:   worksheet-cd.pdfSize:   71 K
Name:   bibliography.docSize:   20 K
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#113 of 136

     Posted 10/5/04 2:38 PM   
Gary Simms
 
From  Gary Simms  Posts 721  Last Nov-18
To  NancyC, Admin      [Msg # 27826.113 Message 27826.113 replying to 27826.112 27826.112 ]    

Nancy,

Thank you for the wonderful workshop.

I looked at many infulences on selling decisions from points I'd not thought about before.

You folks just keep raising the bar for quality on these discussions.

Gary Simms, Heart of Illinois Chapter, NAIC
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#114 of 136

     Posted 10/5/04 2:53 PM   
7NT
 
From  7NT  Posts 424  Last 6/25/06
To  Gary Simms      [Msg # 27826.114 Message 27826.114 replying to 27826.113 27826.113 ]    (Unread)

Gary said to Nancy Crays -

Thank you for the wonderful workshop.

Well said Gary, and well deserved by Nancy!

Saul...

 

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#115 of 136

     Posted 10/5/04 4:56 PM   
NancyC, Admin
 
From  NancyC, Admin  Posts 10143  Last Jun-9
To  7NT      [Msg # 27826.115 Message 27826.115 replying to 27826.114 27826.114 ]    
I just hope it helps someone sometime.

Nancy Crays
NAIC Forum - Long term investing made simple
Click on the Forum name to visit us

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#116 of 136

     Posted 10/5/04 6:40 PM   
Nancy Isaacs
 
From  Nancy Isaacs  Posts 7088  Last Nov-18
To  NancyC, Admin      [Msg # 27826.116 Message 27826.116 replying to 27826.112 27826.112 ]    
Excellent workshop, Nancy.  And I love the all-inclusive worksheet.  I hope I have the discipline to complete it before acting on the decision to either hold or sell.  Sometimes our motivation for holding is due to procrastination rather than being based on a proactive decision.  You gave us lots to think about.  Thanks for doing this.

Nancy Isaacs
NAIC Forum - Long term investing made simple
(Click on the Forum name to visit us)

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#117 of 136

     Posted 10/5/04 7:32 PM   
David Ehresman, Administrator
 
From  David Ehresman, Administrator  Posts 1216  Last 7/23/07
To  NancyC, Admin      [Msg # 27826.117 Message 27826.117 replying to 27826.107 27826.107 ]    

>>They focus on the amount of money they spent on the losers, and as long as they don’t sell, they can cling to the hope of getting even.<<

If only we could remind ourselves that there comes a time when our best chance of  "getting even" is by taking the loss and investing the proceeds in a growing company.,

David

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#118 of 136

     Posted 10/5/04 8:35 PM   
NancyC, Admin
 
From  NancyC, Admin  Posts 10143  Last Jun-9
To  Nancy Isaacs      [Msg # 27826.118 Message 27826.118 replying to 27826.116 27826.116 ]    
"  Sometimes our motivation for holding is due to procrastination rather than being based on a proactive decision. "
That is one of my problems.  However, I've been busy with my stock studies over the past few days.  I hope to continue this pace so that I get caught up.  I decided to start with those I've been procrastinating on.

Nancy Crays
NAIC Forum - Long term investing made simple
Click on the Forum name to visit us

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#119 of 136

     Posted 10/5/04 8:37 PM   
NancyC, Admin
 
From  NancyC, Admin  Posts 10143  Last Jun-9
To  David Ehresman, Administrator      [Msg # 27826.119 Message 27826.119 replying to 27826.117 27826.117 ]    
"If only we could remind ourselves that there comes a time when our best chance of  "getting even" is by taking the loss and investing the proceeds in a growing company.,"
I think this is one of the hardest things to do.  Even now I find myself doing this - and knowing what I'm doing!  It's not easy.

Nancy Crays
NAIC Forum - Long term investing made simple
Click on the Forum name to visit us

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#120 of 136

     Posted 10/6/04 9:36 AM   
Karen OBoyle
 
From  Karen OBoyle  Posts 334  Last Nov-7
To  NancyC, Admin      [Msg # 27826.120 Message 27826.120 replying to 27826.112 27826.112 ]    

What a great session this has been.  It has provided me with several new ways of looking at my losers.  Also, the timing was great  as our club has "When to Sell" on the agenda for an education program, the worksheet and ideas will be good additions.

Thanks!

Karen OBoyle

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#121 of 136

     Posted 10/6/04 9:46 AM   
NancyC, Admin
 
From  NancyC, Admin  Posts 10143  Last Jun-9
To  Karen OBoyle      [Msg # 27826.121 Message 27826.121 replying to 27826.120 27826.120 ]    
Thank, Karen.  I hope to see more of you.  I hope your education program goes well.

Nancy Crays
NAIC Forum - Long term investing made simple
Click on the Forum name to visit us

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#122 of 136

     Posted 10/6/04 11:17 AM   
Gary Simms
 
From  Gary Simms  Posts 721  Last Nov-18
To  David Ehresman, Administrator      [Msg # 27826.122 Message 27826.122 replying to 27826.117 27826.117 ]    

If only we could remind ourselves that there comes a time when our best chance of  "getting even" is by taking the loss and investing the proceeds in a growing company.,

David

I realized while reading Nancy's "holding errors" that the real damage done to a portfolio isn't whether you sell a stock a little late, but rather if you continue to hold it, hoping to get even and miss the gain from a better growth stock.

 

Gary Simms, Heart of Illinois Chapter, NAIC
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#123 of 136

     Posted 10/6/04 12:10 PM   
Bakul Lalla, Administrator
 
From  Bakul Lalla, Administrator  Posts 2832  Last Nov-20
To  Gary Simms      [Msg # 27826.123 Message 27826.123 replying to 27826.122 27826.122 ]    
I realized while reading Nancy's "holding errors" that the real damage done to a portfolio isn't whether you sell a stock a little late, but rather if you continue to hold it, hoping to get even and miss the gain from a better growth stock.
Gary is saying that there is a large opportunity cost for holding losers because you are foregoing the growth in a better growth/quality stock.  One of the best opportunity to do this was during the three consecutive down years.  But then we always have a position (or two) in the portfolio such that it doesn't pan out as originally hypothesized.  Therefore, mark it as available for cash (AFC), then when Mr. Market provides the  better  growth/quality stock, you have made up  your mind as to which position to liquidate to  go into the new  stock.


Bakul

 

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#124 of 136

     Posted 10/7/04 11:36 AM   
Lowell Herr
 
From  Lowell Herr  Posts 451  Last 2/23/05
To  7NT      [Msg # 27826.124 Message 27826.124 replying to 27826.26 27826.26 ]    
Guess what Brian, I mostly agree with you, but I think you left out a reference to what I call the Nancy Isaacs rule (NIR).  That's the rule that guides Nancy I., myself and many clubs and investors when a particular holding becomes too great a percentage of their portfolio.  Nancy has a specific percentage that guides her and the individuals and clubs who follow the same rule often have that percentage hard wired into their investing psyche, bylaws and/or operating rules.


Saul,

In addition to using Nancy's stock percentage guidelines, I also have a specific target percentage I want to carry for each asset class in the portfolio.  This percentage is definitely a personal preference and will vary from person to person depending on their age, investment preferences, and risk tolerance.  Such a discussion may be more appropriate to portfolio management than when to sell but selling does enter in when one is rebalancing a portfolio.

Lowell Herr


 

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#125 of 136

     Posted 10/9/04 10:13 AM   
Brian Lewis
 
From  Brian Lewis  Posts 299  Last 2/28/06
To  Lowell Herr      [Msg # 27826.125 Message 27826.125 replying to 27826.124 27826.124 ]    

Lowell said: "Such a discussion may be more appropriate to portfolio management than when to sell but selling does enter in when one is rebalancing a portfolio."

Hi Lowell.  FWIW, I don't get the distinction of "when to sell" as being anything but a part of portfolio management.     Though I do think that selling just to rebalance is sometimes akin to not ever brushing your teeth and then going to the dentist when your teeth start hurting ...  (factoring portfolio diversification into buy decisions should take care of most rebalancing needs).

 

 

Brian Lewis
President, Puget Sound Chapter NAIC
Director, NIA Advisory Board
http://www.nwlink.com/~brianle/

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#126 of 136

     Posted 10/12/04 8:21 AM   
Lowell Herr
 
From  Lowell Herr  Posts 451  Last 2/23/05
To  Brian Lewis      [Msg # 27826.126 Message 27826.126 replying to 27826.125 27826.125 ]    
(factoring portfolio diversification into buy decisions should take care of most rebalancing needs).


Brian,

This is assuming one has fresh cash available for new purchases.  This is less true for retired folks.

Also, I suspect I'm not part of the norm when it comes to portfolio management, rebalancing, etc.  When it comes to rebalancing a portfolio, I primarily use index investments for this purpose as I don't recommend selling individual stocks for this purpose should selling in a particular asset class be advisable.

Lowell


 

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#127 of 136

     Posted 10/12/04 2:11 PM   
Brian Lewis
 
From  Brian Lewis  Posts 299  Last 2/28/06
To  Lowell Herr      [Msg # 27826.127 Message 27826.127 replying to 27826.126 27826.126 ]    

I said: "factoring portfolio diversification into buy decisions should take care of most rebalancing needs"

Lowell replied: "This is assuming one has fresh cash available for new purchases.  This is less true for retired folks."

Hi Lowell. While I agree that it's "less true", that doesn't make it "untrue".  <g>

I and at least some others that I know find that the sort of ideal of "hold forever" (was this Buffet or Philip Carret ... ?) --- that this isn't practical.   I, for example, sold my shares in Cardinal Health earlier this year.  I was prepared to hold it for a very long time, and had in fact held it for quite a while.  But too many issues came up that made me question management and the ability of the company to reliably grow earnings going forward.    The result was that I had, if not "fresh cash", nevertheless cash to redeploy in the market.

My assertion is that typically enough such events occur --- selling for either offensive or (as in this case) defensive reasons --- that one can normally maintain adequate diversification without selling just to maintain diversification.

The exceptions being somewhat extreme cases: The happy situation of a very big winner that you don't sell off too soon.  Or the unhappy situation where your defensive selling doesn't happen soon enough --- so that you have what I think that you (Lowell) coined the term "shard stocks" for.  Or maybe you heard the term elsewhere (I think I heard it from you, though of course the phenomenon is all too commonly known! <g>).

 

Brian Lewis
President, Puget Sound Chapter NAIC
Director, NIA Advisory Board
http://www.nwlink.com/~brianle/

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#128 of 136

     Posted 10/12/04 6:40 PM   
Nancy Isaacs
 
From  Nancy Isaacs  Posts 7088  Last Nov-18
To  Brian Lewis      [Msg # 27826.128 Message 27826.128 replying to 27826.127 27826.127 ]    

Brian and Lowell,

>>My assertion is that typically enough such events occur --- selling for either offensive or (as in this case) defensive reasons --- that one can normally maintain adequate diversification without selling just to maintain diversification.<<

I'm virtually retired with not much new money coming in.  But for a long while I have been dollar cost averaging out of my mutual funds and putting the money into common stocks.  This is another example of how one might have "if not 'fresh cash', nevertheless cash to redeploy in the market."

Nancy Isaacs
NAIC Forum - Long term investing made simple
http://community.compuserve.com

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#129 of 136

     Posted 10/12/04 6:58 PM   
NancyC, Admin
 
From  NancyC, Admin  Posts 10143  Last Jun-9
To  Nancy Isaacs      [Msg # 27826.129 Message 27826.129 replying to 27826.128 27826.128 ]    
I think your comments show how we all have different circumstances.  Some retirees have pensions and some don't.  Some have bonds or annuities, but others don't.  Some only have Social Security and a small portfolio of stocks.  Others have large portfolios and/or IRAs and/or other retirement income.  We are not all alike.  What works for one may not work for another.

This remind me of when Oprah sent people to our Forum.  Some had huge amounts of debt and limited income and wanted to find out how to invest.  We were not used to these types of potential investors.

I guess I think we need to be aware of individual differences in financial circumstances.

Nancy Crays
NAIC Forum - Long term investing made simple
Click on the Forum name to visit us

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#130 of 136

     Posted 11/12/04 10:26 AM   
Gary Simms
 
From  Gary Simms  Posts 721  Last Nov-18
To  Gary Simms      [Msg # 27826.130 Message 27826.130 replying to 27826.122 27826.122 ]    (Unread)

I put together a small Power Point presentation of Nancy's work.

Fee free to modify it. I'm not much of a graphics artist as you can see.

 

Gary Simms, Heart of Illinois Chapter, NAIC
Attachments
Name:   when_to_sell_crays_fireworks.pptSize:   560 K
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#131 of 136

     Posted 11/13/04 9:16 PM   
Carl Fisher
 
From  Carl Fisher  Posts 146  Last 4/19/09
To  Gary Simms      [Msg # 27826.131 Message 27826.131 replying to 27826.130 27826.130 ]    

Gary / Nancy,

Very timely post of the Power Point presentation of Nancy's "When to Sell".  Our chapter has a "When to Sell" session scheduled for Wednesday and we were putting it together.  We now plan to use this one.  Thank you both for the excellent work.

Carl Fisher

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Selling Decisions

To Sell or to Hold: That is the Question

  
 
     

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