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Control over the desktop isn’t as important as it used to be, but it’s still critical – and will present major challenges for Google over the next few years. Google has at least two big disadvantages in this battle. First is, of course, the fact that Microsoft still controls the user experience for the vast majority of PCs. We can expect, with next year’s release of the new versions of Windows and Office, combined with the expansion of its Live services portal, that Microsoft will do all it can to keep PC users away from Google’s home page, search engine, and services. As University of Berkeley professor Hal Varian has pointed out, the “default” option tends to be the preferred option for most users (who have few geeky inclinations), and Microsoft has proven itself a master of controlling the default option. Microsoft has a lot to fear from Google, but Google has just as much to fear from Microsoft
Second, Google’s design sense is abysmal. The simplicity of the original (pre-portal) home page was refreshing – and it helped set Google apart. But Google seems to take pride in the butt-ugliness of its interfaces (I assume that stems from its engineering culture). Look at its recent offerings, such as Blog Search and Base, not to mention the ubiquitous AdSense box that’s become an ever-widening esthetic stain on the web – they’re not pleasant to look at or use. As Google moves into different, more complicated application services, particularly those with a desktop component, its weakness in interface design will hinder its ambitions. It’s well behind Yahoo, not to mention Apple, in this important area.
Of course, the PC desktop is not the only "desktop" – and, eventually, it probably won’t even be the most important one. Google has fewer natural disadvantages in imposing itself on, say, the mobile phone interface, as no one company dominates the way Microsoft does in PCs. Still, now that basically every company in the digital world understands that Google is a competitor, expect Google to face big challenges in this world, too. In particular, the wireless companies can be expected to charge a high toll for giving Google – or anyone else - access to the handsets on their networks, particularly if they’re going to distribute ads. In general, the next stage in internet competition may, for better or worse, be The Revenge of the Gatekeepers.
The desktop search sector is very crowded, and there is considerable confusion. For the majority of users, whatever search comes with the operating system is the search system of choice.
There are several issues that are likely to accompany desktop search functionality. The first is the degree and type of control an individual user has over what is and is not indexed. Google's Desktop Search Enterprise and the Microsoft Vista search functions are likely to require some rethinking of security. The second is that in New Age search systems like Entopia's, Odessey ISYS's, or Siderean Software's, the line between desktop and other locations is fuzzy. In fact, with a combination of "virtual folders" and third generation search tools, exactly what is a desktop? Where are the bits and pieces that comprise a "file" located? Third, the shift from desktop computing to ambient computing creates a situation where the desktop may extend wherever the authorized user is. If the desktop itself is extensible, what are the limits of desktop search?
There aren't off-the-shelf answers to these issues. In the context of an individual user, control of that user is likely to be contentious. With regard to security, at the Homeland Security conference at which I spoke in June 2005, there is modest awareness of certain security issues associated with desktop search. And there is even less thought given to the virtual desktop issues. In short, desktop search is likely to be an interesting market sector. When one considers that boundary stretching technologies are gaining momentum; for example, Deveonthink (Germany) and Source (Madrid) are likely to have an impact on desktop search in 2006.
Where's Google is this? In the thick of the battle.
I suspect that Google is more interested in the platform neutral idea of a device top more than specifically a desk top. While I don't think they've exactly conceded the desktop space to Microsoft, they know the costs of competing for that space would be incredibly high. Better to aim at other areas where they can have more impact for less cost - and perhaps get on the desktop too. So I look for them to make deals to get on cell-phones, set-top boxes, possibly even game consoles. All of which Microsoft is also involved in, but places where the playing field is closer to level.
The current desktop metaphor is built on people organizing their own information. Google, in theory, will organize the information automatically, doing away with files and folders. So perhaps Google will decide to go around the desktop and create a single framework upon which applications -- client and server -- can be built. By creating a sort of Google Virtual Machine (perhaps like Squeak.org), you might be able to transcend the limitations of the desktop metaphor without having to recreate the graphics-display and network stacks yourself.
I can easily imagine a computer five years from now that looks and feels like OS X or Longhorn -- until I hit the "Google" key and a new layer pops up with all manner of dashboard apps and contextual gizmos, relevant search terms and recent related auctions and pricing. A Google layer or stack -- a programming environment that has a huge grid network of searchable content available to it at all times -- might thrive along with the desktop without replacing it.
One of the big issues with Google's desktop ambitions is that it hasn't still figured out a way to make money off it I know desktop search allows them to stamp some ads, but it is not clear where they can make money on the desktop.
Google clearly wants the browser to be the window to its world. That's an environment in which it can compete and win against microsoft. I expect them to do more interesting things within the confines of the browser.
The whole issue of Open Office / Sun alliance - that's just marketing speak, Sun seeking some halo effect from Google. The idea of Google doing a desktop video client based on VLC seems more plausible than any project with Open Office. I think they might end up supporting open-document formats as part of some future offering for word-processing online.
The power of the desktop is in its defaults, that's why the Google Toolbar changes them all. It's why they pay you a dollar for every person you get to download Firefox with their toolbar pre-loaded.
That said, Google's desktop efforts seem unfocused to me.
The best example of this is how they ignore their XUL/Firefox expertise and continue to create applications which snub their power users on Linux and Mac. Even if you're on Windows, the Google Desktop is a bear to extend with your own widgets. That's why developers have flocked to Yahoo's Konfabulator which uses HTML/CSS/JS that we all know and love.
The exception is Google Talk, which seems spartan but has a very well-designed and thought out UI.
Google has gained some decent real estate on the average user’s desktop with Google Toolbar, Google Desktop, and most notably Gmail. But as mentioned yesterday, aside from Gmail grabbing single digit market share as a nice email client, they haven’t really made much of an impact (yet, anyway). And while the OpenOffice partnership sounds nice, I doubt Bill Gates or Steve Ballmer are likely to throw any chairs over worrying about Sun.
Looking back to the Internet 1.0 wars, Netscape made arguably more impact on the desktop in 1997 with Communicator than Google has yet to make with their current desktop products. The combination of a Navigator browser, Messenger email client, Collabra news client, along with other lightweight calendaring & editing tools (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netscape_Communicator) was a reasonable if minimalist alternative to Microsoft Office. In the subsequent eight years after Netscape’s untimely demise, other than Gmail the more significant desktop innovation appears to be coming from the Firefox community and interesting startups like Flock & Delicious.
For all the rumors of Google doing their own browser and/or OS, they haven’t demonstrated much more than a little Ajax to threaten Microsoft’s stronghold on desktop productivity tools. Google might make a few more tools company acquisitions, but unless they bought somebody big like Intuit or Adobe/Macromedia (unlikely), it's doubtful the story will change much. More likely, Google may just decide to skip investing in desktop PC tools, and focus more on mobile or wireless initiatives that obviate the need for significant PC presence.
Google might still change the game in 2006 and beyond, but i'd say it's at least as likely that "Microsoft 2.0" will beat "Microsoft 1.0" than will Google.
Google's ambitions seem to be all over the place on and off the desktop + Search + Desktop + Quality Food and the Search for a Chef (-: + What about an airline. There is an industry in need of help. I joked about GoogleJet last April Fool's day but as each day goes by, I begin to wonder if my little joke will one day become a reality. Btw, that's another place they could diversify with reservation systems. Of course, two other well-known airlines spun off of companies: Virgin Atlantic and Midwest Express.
Microsoft needs to be concerned that Google, at least at this point, controls the media and just not the blogosphere but the mainstream media, what my mom and dad read. It's one reason why a company can grow to have a top corporate reputation in just seven years. People feel "good" about using Google products, whatever they are, vs. MS. That might be Microsoft's biggest challenge. Is a tipping point coming. Battelle posted about that last week. Even my eight your old neice knows Google.
Like I said yesterday, Om is really on the money (no pun) again today when he writes, "It hasn't still figured out a way to make money off it." I know they're not going to tell us straight out but almost every conf call or interview is that Google will figure out monetization later of all of these services. I wonder when?
At the same time lots of other great non-Google, non-MS apps are coming on strong with apps for the desktop. For example, Writely.com (overview here) and ThinkFree.
Maps? HomePages is not a mashup but an impressive real estate database (most major cities) that also includes recent home sales and the chance to include other local data.
Toolbars? I love the A9 toolbar. Why? It allows you to easily (one click) add the search functionality from any search box to the toolbar. Total operation time? About three seconds. Yes, it's possible elsewhere but A9 makes it easy and Googleaholics will be happy to know that the default engine at A9 is still Google.
Desktop Search? I think Yahoo, Copernic and others have strong entries. Remote services like Filangy.com allow me to save a cached copy of any page in my browser window, tag it, make notes, and make it accessible. That said, Google's Desktop App is very strong. A recent study (PDF) from the Univ. of Wisconsin ranked Copernic in first and Yahoo at number two. That's in the consumer market, not the enterprise market that Steve talks about. Fast is also doing work in many areas and they also have a new desktop app for the enterprise.
The question is how do these companies distinguish themselves in a Googleverse? You've got me.
Blogs: Heck, it really should be called RSS search. For the typical user incorporating top blogs into the main mix might be a good idea. The spam in the blog world is amazing. Have you seen these recent numbers from Topix on blog spam. Wow!
"While the total number of unique feeds that have ever existed, or blogging accounts that have ever been signed up can certainly be counted, what is far more relevant to us is the composition of the daily posting stream. [My emphasis] What we're seeing is that 85-90% of the daily posts hitting ping services such as weblogs.com are spam (take a look for yourself). Of well-ranked non-spam blogs that we've discovered, we've found about half haven't been updated in the past 60 days. Our filters sift through what's left, which even after discarding 95%, is still a great deal of good material."
What about Mac users' desktops? Very little for them, although they do seem to be doing hiring for Mac developers of late.
Nick writes: "Not to mention the ubiquitous AdSense box that’s become an ever-widening esthetic stain on the web – they’re not pleasant to look at or use." Good point Nick!
You've got to wonder when people will start to tune these out or as I noted yesterday, just turn them off.
Nick: On mobile. Again agreement but then again others are also doing good work here. I touched on a few companies yesterday. Additionally, Yahoo has some great services that allow you to send local search results (names, numbers, addresses) to your phone with the click of a mouse. Vazu.com allow you to send just about anything from your desktop to your phone.
The question is where is the revenue stream in ads on mobile search? AOL is the only one showing paid links at this point. I keep thinking that results sponsorship is a potential opportunity. For example, SMS sports scores sponsored by Nike or a local sports team. A famous reference book still in use today began as a way of getting the name of a popular brewer out there when it came to answering factual "bar bet" questions. It's called the Guinness Book of World Records.
Steve: Kudos for mentionong Siderean Software. I love what they're doing. A cool demo here. Parents and students will love it. (-: http://www.thegateway.org/
Just for fun: By the way Google might have true Gooogleverse intentions; they have a ton of domain names including GoogleGalactic and GoogleUniverse registered. (-:
As a former IT professional in a previous life, though I don't cover this area as a content analyst at Shore Communications, my perspective is that Google and its desktop applications is a mediocre player. In contrast to the open Web which simply requires an Internet connection and a Web browser on the PC, desktop search requires downloading and configuring software which a major barrier. In the corporate world, IT support of desktop software is usually limited to a list of acceptable vendors, usually best of breed. Microsoft is firmly entrenched in that arena, with its Microsoft Office, Outlook Exchange email server and increasingly their Sharepoint portal software (which may be bundled at no extra charge on a multi-license deal). Adding new software applications, regardless of vendor, is a major process. Desktop search software brings in major issues of liability and corporate governance, as well as technical support of hundreds and thousands of employees. Penetrating into that market requires a sales support organization, and I don't see much evidence of that at Google, though it might come with the Sun partnership.
Google will make more headway in getting to the desktop of individuals providing their own technical support, but even then, there are better search products so the savvy user will mix and match the software and services which fits their individual needs...and compatibility with their corporate environment is a major consideration (who trained a generation on Microsoft products?). From a personal perspective, the killer application for search on the desktop is digital pictures....but that requires tagging each one with labels to enable finding.
I see the more important question as which applications will migrate off the desktop and onto the Web. As we increasingly share digital content and move from platform to platform, i.e. PC to mobile device, creating and maintaining content on the web, rather than a fixed desktop, makes much more sense. My crystal ball is pretty hazy in identifying which company(ies) will be the Gorilla.....
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