Doppler Diaries

Posted by: Doug Kammerer

 

Friday was a great day for most of the area and I really think that this 4th of July is going to be one to remember as well. The weather should be just about perfect in all locations. High pressure will temporarily take control of the region bringing with it plenty of sunshine and nice warm temperatures. Highs on the 4th should be in the low to mid 80's in most locations, even down the shore as winds will be blowing from the northwest. The Poconos will be a little cooler with highs in the low 70's but it will still be great there as well. Whether it's camping, having a BBQ or laying out by the ocean we are looking GOOD!

 

On Sunday a system to our west will try to move into the region. The good news is that most of the moisture should stay to the south, but there may be a few showers, possibly early, down in Delaware and in extreme south Jersey. I am not looking for a washout by any means and once the showers pass things should be nice again.

 

I finally think we are just about out of this wet and cool pattern. We may even get into the 90's late next week and we could be setting ourselves up for a hot and dry mid July period. More on that later, but for now, just enjoy a great holiday weekend. Talk to you tomorrow.

Posted by: Doug Kammerer

 

Yes we are going to be getting unsettled again. Once again a persistent upper low is going to park itself over the great lakes region of the country. That is the perfect location for us to get showers and thunderstorms in our area just about each day this week .As the upper low sits and spins over the great lakes, little pieces of energy (little storms) will rotate around that low and into our area. We will see a chance of showers and storms just about each day. We will not see horrible weather, but rather the occasional downpour.

 

Tuesday should be a pretty nice day. We will see a mix of sun and clouds with a chance of storms developing as we move into the afternoon. The best chance of showers will be to the north and west of Philly. The biggest threat from these storms will be heavy rain and some areas of hail. The storms should be moving through though so they will not last very long.

 

On Wednesday and Thursday the chance of rain is a bit greater. I expect more clouds than sun both days with a good chance of showers and storms. Highs both days will be below normal and near the 80 degree mark.

 

Friday is looking a little better with only a slight chance of storms during the afternoon.

 

Have a great week everyone!

Posted by: Doug Kammerer

 

After a very long period of showers and below normal temperatures we are finally going to be moving into a better pattern. Our area of low pressure that had been given us the rain has now moved on. The high today was 87 degrees. It is just amazing that that is the highest temperature we have seen since April 27th of this year. We did hit 87 in May, but that happened only once. It was a great day today and the first day this month that I can remember the whole area staying dry. That will not be the case tomorrow.

 

Another area of low pressure will move into the northeast tomorrow. The trailing cold front will bring with it numerous showers and thunderstorms. If we get enough sunshine, some of them may be strong to severe. We will of course keep you updated right here at CBS 3 and CBS3.com

The front will move through on Friday and will bring with it a beautiful day on Saturday. Highs will still be in the mid to upper 80s but there will be much less humidity. It will be a fantastic beach day as well and I still think this will be the best beach weekend so far this season. ENJOY!!!

Posted by: Doug Kammerer

 

This pattern has just been amazing. It is very rare to see this kind of pattern during the summer. The jet stream right now is extremely amplified. It goes from California, way up into Minnesota and then all the way down to Florida. That is something that you normally see during the winter months. Again it has everything to do with the NAO which has been highly negative. It is starting to go neutral which will help us for about the next four to five days. The NAO is then expected to once again go negative which means even more unsettled weather as we head into the month of July.

 

We will see more showers during the day on Wednesday and some of them may be on the heavy side.  We should see plenty of clouds with some sun as well. Highs will be around 80 with some areas slightly warmer and others slightly cooler.

 

Then we see the change that many of you have been waiting for. On Thursday the low finally moves out. The heat which has been building to our southwest will finally be able to move our way. Highs on Thursday should be near the 90 degree mark for the first time since hitting 92 on April 27th of this year.

 

The warm weather will continue right on into the weekend as well. Highs each day should be in the upper 80s to near 90 with a chance of thunderstorms on Friday and then a better chance of storms on Sunday.

 

Then the pattern looks to shift right back into an unsettled one as another area of low pressure shifts off the coast and just sits there. That would mean average to below average temperatures and above normal rainfall as we head into the end of the month.

 

Enjoy the end of the week everyone. Right now I think it may be the best weekend so far this year for the shore and the pools.

Posted by: Doug Kammerer

 

The pattern just continues!  Our area of low pressure that came through on Saturday has stalled off the coast and continues to bring us showers and plenty of cloud cover. It should continue to be just off the east coast through the day on Wednesday, which means even more showers and cloud cover through Wednesday night. Again, we will not see a wash out, but you may just want to keep that umbrella handy over the next few days.

 

Here is the good news. For those of you that have been waiting for sunshine and warmer temperatures, you are in luck. By Thursday that area of low pressure should finally be far enough to the east that it will no longer have an impact on our weather. High pressure will try to nudge into the region and so will the heat. Highs on Thursday may reach 90 in some areas and we should see plenty of sunshine. If you have been waiting for a pool day or a beach day, this may be your day. Friday is looking good as well. It should also be nice and warm with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. There will be a chance of a few storms on Friday, but right now I think most of us should remain on the dry side.

 

This coming weekend could just be the best weekend so far this month. Highs should remain in the mid to upper 80s all weekend long with a chance of storms moving back in for Sunday. After that however, the broken record returns with more unsettled weather moving back in for most of next week. More to come over the next few days. Have a great one!

Posted By: Doug Kammerer

 

We have already seen a lot of rain today and it looks like more is on the way. It is about 11:50 this morning as I am writing this and there are already more showers and storms forming off to our west. I think we are in for a rainy and stormy afternoon so keep those umbrellas with you today.

 

As Annie says, the sun will come out tomorrow. Friday should be a great day and right now it is looking like the best day of the week. We should see sunshine during a good part of the day and it will finally feel more like summer. Highs will be in the 80s during the afternoon in the City. It should also be the best day down the shore with temperatures up to near 75 in most locations. It should really be a fantastic Friday.

 

Look for more showers and storms on Saturday as yet another upper level system moves through. It should move into the region during the day Saturday and I think we could see some pretty strong storms. The shore would be the last area to see those storms, so it may not be a bad place to be.

 

Have a great day everyone. I am back to the afternoon and night shows tomorrow so I will see you then.

Yes, weather-wise we are stuck in a rut.

Today will be another fairly gloomy day with plenty of cloud cover and temperatures that will be well below our normal high of 81. We have been in this rut for much of the month. We have seen below normal temperatures this June and well above normal rainfall. As a matter of fact we have seen measurable rain 11 of the 16 days this month and we will see more tonight and into the day tomorrow.  

I have already talked about the jet stream and its role in our weather, but the reason behind why the jet stream is where it is, is a little more complicated. From time to time we talk about the North Atlantic Oscillation or the NAO. We normally talk about it during the winter months. We talk about it and its relationship to cold and snowy weather in our area.  

The NAO, simply put, is the relationship between high and low pressure in the Atlantic. During a positive, NAO low pressure is found over or near Greenland. During a negative, NAO high pressure is near or over Greenland. During a Negative NAO, the pattern of the jet stream changes over the US and in particular over the Northeast. We tend to see more in the way of low pressure and trough as I have been talking about over the last few days. That trough leads to cooler than normal temps and above normal rainfall.   The NAO pattern is one that does not change quickly. It normally takes at least a week for changes to start and once you get a good negative NAO set-up, it is hard to break. That is what we have now. Take a look at the picture below:  



All you need to look at is the first graph. That is the NAO index. The zero line represents neutral. Above that line you have a positive NAO and below that line a negative NAO. You can see that from about the 1st of the month we have been in a negative NAO. The red line is the forecasted index. There too you can see that we are forecasted to continue with this negative NAO through the end of the month. That is one reason why I think we will stay below normal for temps and continue with above normal rainfall. I doubt we see 90 in June although we will have a few days here and there that are warm. Friday and Saturday should be two warm days with highs in the 80s.  

In conclusion, it looks like we are going to continue to see more spring like weather across the region over the next two weeks or so, even though summer officially begins on Sunday.  Have a great day everyone and keep those jackets and umbrellas handy.  

Doug Kammerer
CBS 3 Meteorologist  

P.S. One more note, remember that heat wave we saw at the end of April? Well that was during a positive NAO and we stayed positive for much of May which just happened to have above normal temperatures.

We saw even more rain this morning after another amazing day weather-wise yesterday. We saw numerous severe weather reports during the afternoon yesterday with a lot of hail an plenty of heavy rain. Then we saw more heavy rain overnight and showers early this morning. So what is going on?

Well it all has to do with the Jet Stream. I talked about this a few blogs ago, but we continue to be in a trough aloft, or in an area of low pressure at higher altitudes. That is going to continue to keep us cooler than normal and wetter than normal as well. I really do not see any changes to the long term forecast either. That would mean that June should end up below normal for the month temperature wise and well above normal for rainfall. So far we are 1 degree below normal and 1.6" above normal in rainfall.

There will be a couple of times when the trough breaks down and we get some warmer air in here. I think we should see that happen during the day on Friday and into Saturday before another trough builds in and gives us yet more rain. Friday and Saturday should be the warmest days this week, but there will still be a chance for storms, especially Saturday. Friday and Saturday though should also be the best days down the shore. They will be the warmest days and even though there is a chance of a few storms, they will be our most summer like days of the week.

Today and tomorrow will be below normal as we get a pretty good easterly flow. Highs will be in the 70s both days with many areas staying in the upper 60s on Wednesday, especially in Southeast NJ.

Have a great day and I will see you tomorrow morning at 5am!  If you're up! Oh and check out our Backyard BBQ tomorrow at 4 and 6pm.

Doug Kammerer

CBS 3 Meteorologist